This year’s hurricane season was a devastating and destructive one for Florida, the Gulf Coast, and cruise itineraries. But it looks like it’s finally over.
Royal Caribbean’s Chief Meteorologist Craig Setzer has shared a positive outlook for cruising from US ports, highlighting significant hurricane landfalls in the US will likely decrease as cooler temperatures begin to settle in.
“While another named system could form in the next few weeks somewhere in the Atlantic basin, the chances for another destructive hurricane landfall in Florida decrease each day as we get into November,” he stated.
“We are entering the final days of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season as far as the US is concerned,” he continued.
The hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30 each year, with hurricanes typically occurring during the peak months of August, September, and October, when ocean temperatures are warmest and conditions for storm development are most favorable.
“Water temps (which are dropping) are just barely warm enough to support a hurricane in the Gulf, and wind shear remains mostly high over the state,” Setzer added.
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However, that doesn’t mean the Caribbean is off the hook just yet. As most US departures in the Gulf of Mexico and Florida are departing for warm-weather islands, particularly those in Eastern Caribbean regions with warmer sea surface temperatures, Setzer notes storms are not impossible.
“Models continue to suggest tropical development is possible in the Caribbean over the next 10 days, and folks in the islands should keep an eye on this area,” he said. “Wind shear is expected to remain low, and waters remain very warm there.”
Still, the meteorologist notes that any storms developing in the Caribbean wouldn’t be able to sustain strength by time they reached the Gulf of Mexico.
“If something were to form and move north from the Caribbean, it would likely be deflected east and be inhabited from strengthening, thanks to the shear,” Said Setzer.
Potential Storm Not Likely a Threat
As the Atlantic hurricane season winds down, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has released a new update on possible storm activity in the Caribbean Sea.
According to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook on October 30, 2024, a broad area of low pressure is expected to develop in the Southwestern Caribbean near Jamaica and the Cayman Islands by the end of the week.
While conditions in the region remain favorable for gradual storm development, the NHC forecasts only a slight chance for any significant formation within the next 48 hours.
Over the next week, forecasters indicate a 40-percent chance that a tropical depression could form. That system is likely moving slowly to the north toward the Central or Western Caribbean.
But after Florida witnessed not one but two deadly storms that forced port closures and cruise delays and cancellations, the thought of a storm can still cause anxiety. Meteorologists remind us that both hurricanes were spurred by unseasonably warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricane Helene, which formed off the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico in late September, strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane when it made landfall along the Sunshine State’s Gulf Coast near Pensacola.
The storm brought heavy rain and damaging winds, causing port closures across the state, including Jacksonville, Key West and Port Canaveral.
Following right behind that storm, Hurricane Milton developed in early October, making landfall near Siesta Key, Florida, as a Category 3 storm on October 9. Once again, ports across the state, including Tampa, were shut down.
But as the calendar flips to November, cruise guests can breathe a sigh of relief knowing the end is near and it should be smooth sailing from here.
